What Happened?
Shares of auto services provider Monro (NASDAQ: MNRO) jumped 3.2% in the afternoon session after a tame inflation report boosted investor hopes for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The latest Consumer Price Index data showed the annual inflation rate held steady at 2.7%, reassuring investors who had feared that tariffs could lead to a spike in consumer prices. This milder-than-expected reading gives the Federal Reserve more flexibility to consider lowering interest rates, possibly as soon as next month. A potential rate cut could reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, stimulating more spending and providing a significant boost for the retail industry.
Adding to the optimism, reports of a 90-day tariff truce with China further eased concerns about future price pressures.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $15.68, up 2.4% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Monro’s shares are very volatile and have had 24 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 11 days ago when the stock dropped 5% on the news that the broader market tumbled in the morning session after a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report and the announcement of new, widespread tariffs on imported goods. The U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, falling far short of the 109,000 forecast. Compounding the issue, job gains for May and June were revised down by a combined 258,000, signaling what some see as “increasing signs of fragility” in the labor market. Simultaneously, the White House announced new tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41%, on goods from 92 countries. This “double whammy” of negative news has intensified fears that ongoing trade wars are damaging the U.S. economy. The combination of a weaker labor market and new trade barriers has rattled investor confidence, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates to support the economy.
Monro is down 36.1% since the beginning of the year, and at $15.68 per share, it is trading 47.3% below its 52-week high of $29.78 from November 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Monro’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $292.41.
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