As the global silver market navigates a period of unprecedented price volatility and structural supply deficits, Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) has emerged as a primary case study for the sector's rapid expansion. On January 13, 2026, the company reported landmark production figures for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, driven by the successful ramp-up of its Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. The results arrive at a critical juncture for the industry, as silver prices recently tested historic highs between $70 and $80 per ounce in early January, fueled by a relentless surge in industrial demand.
The operational success at Zgounder highlights a broader trend in the mining sector: the race to bring new capacity online to meet the requirements of the green energy transition. With silver now firmly established as a dual-purpose asset—serving both as a monetary hedge and a critical industrial metal—Aya’s ability to nearly triple its year-over-year production underscores the significant rewards available to miners capable of executing large-scale expansion projects in a high-price environment.
Record-Breaking Operations at Zgounder
The fourth quarter of 2025 proved to be a transformative period for Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA). The company reported a record quarterly production of 1.37 million ounces (oz) of silver, representing a 2% increase over the previous quarter. This momentum culminated in a record-breaking December, where the Zgounder mine produced 545,491 oz of silver in a single month. For the full year 2025, Zgounder’s output reached 4.83 million oz, a staggering 193% increase compared to the 1.65 million oz produced in 2024.
This production surge was the direct result of the Zgounder expansion project, which declared commercial production on December 29, 2024. Throughout 2025, the company focused on optimizing its new processing facilities, which consistently outperformed expectations. By December 2025, the mill was processing an average of 4,107 tonnes per day (tpd)—roughly 41% above its original design capacity. This operational efficiency was supported by a new 90km power line providing renewable energy to the site and the successful transition to a hybrid open-pit and underground mining model.
While the full-year production of 4.83 million oz fell slightly short of the company’s initial 5.0 to 5.3 million oz guidance due to grade dilution issues encountered earlier in the year, the aggressive ramp-up in the second half of 2025 has been viewed by the market as a resounding success. The company’s total silver equivalent (AgEq) production for 2025 reached 5.0 million oz, bolstered by initial contributions from the Boumadine tailings operation.
Winners and Losers in the High-Silver Era
Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) stands as a clear winner in the current market, leveraging its low-cost Moroccan operations to capture the full upside of the 2025 silver rally. By achieving record throughput at the exact moment silver prices were surging toward $60 and $70 per ounce, the company has significantly strengthened its balance sheet. Similarly, royalty and streaming firms like Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (TSX:WPM) have benefited from the increased volume and higher price realizations across their diversified portfolios of silver-producing assets.
On the other hand, the primary "losers" in this scenario are the industrial end-users. Manufacturers in the solar photovoltaic (PV) and electric vehicle (EV) sectors are facing ballooning input costs. Companies such as Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and major solar panel producers are seeing their margins squeezed as silver—a critical component in high-efficiency TOPCon solar cells and EV power electronics—remains in a persistent supply deficit. Despite efforts to "thrift" or reduce the amount of silver used in each unit, the sheer volume of global demand has kept the pressure on procurement teams.
Other major miners, such as Pan American Silver Corp. (TSX:PAAS) and First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE: AG), have also seen their valuations lifted by the rising tide of silver prices. However, those with higher-cost operations or those struggling with jurisdictional risks have not been able to capitalize on the rally as effectively as Aya. The market has increasingly rewarded "pure-play" silver producers who can demonstrate tangible production growth rather than those merely maintaining existing output levels.
Industrial Demand and the Structural Deficit
The record production at Zgounder is a necessary response to a silver market that has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years. As of early 2026, the gap between global supply and demand is estimated to be between 160 million and 200 million ounces. This imbalance has been driven primarily by three industrial pillars: solar energy, electric vehicles, and the burgeoning AI infrastructure sector.
Solar PV demand now accounts for nearly 30% of all industrial silver consumption. The transition to high-efficiency TOPCon and HJT cell technologies has actually increased the silver intensity per panel, counteracting previous technological efforts to use less of the metal. Simultaneously, the EV revolution has added significant pressure; an average electric vehicle uses between 25 and 50 grams of silver—nearly double that of an internal combustion engine vehicle. Furthermore, the massive build-out of AI data centers has introduced a new demand vector, as silver’s unmatched conductivity is essential for the high-performance servers and switches powering the AI boom.
Historically, silver has often been overlooked in favor of gold, but the 2025-2026 "commodity supercycle" has shifted the narrative. The current environment mirrors the silver spikes of the late 1970s and 2011, but with a crucial difference: today’s rally is underpinned by indispensable industrial applications rather than purely speculative investment. This fundamental shift suggests that even record production levels from mines like Zgounder may struggle to fully satiate the market’s appetite.
The Road Ahead: 2026 and Beyond
Looking forward, Aya Gold & Silver (TSX:AYA) appears positioned for even higher output. The company has signaled a projected run rate of over 6 million ounces for 2026 as it continues to optimize the Zgounder mill and explores further expansion at its Boumadine property. The industry will be watching closely to see if Aya can maintain its high recovery rates—which averaged 91.2% in Q4 2025—while managing the inflationary pressures that continue to plague the broader mining sector.
For the wider market, the focus will remain on whether other silver majors like Coeur Mining, Inc. (NYSE: CDE) can bring new projects online fast enough to prevent further price spikes. There is also the potential for a strategic pivot among industrial consumers toward alternative materials, although silver’s unique chemical and physical properties make it notoriously difficult to replace without sacrificing efficiency.
In the short term, market volatility is expected to persist. While record production figures are a positive sign for supply chain stability, they also highlight the immense scale of the challenge. Investors should prepare for a landscape where silver’s role as a "green metal" keeps it at the forefront of the global energy transition, potentially leading to further capital inflows into the mining space.
Summary and Market Outlook
Aya Gold & Silver’s (TSX:AYA) 2025 performance serves as a benchmark for the silver mining industry, demonstrating that significant production growth is possible even in a complex global environment. By nearly tripling its output and achieving record-breaking monthly figures in December, Aya has capitalized on a historic silver price rally that saw the metal outperform almost every other major asset class in 2025.
Moving forward, the market will be characterized by a tug-of-war between rising mine supply and relentless industrial demand. While Aya’s success provides some relief to the supply chain, the persistent deficit suggests that silver prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Investors should keep a close eye on quarterly production reports from primary silver miners and any shifts in the pace of global solar installations.
Ultimately, the events of late 2025 and early 2026 have cemented silver’s status as a critical strategic resource. As the world continues its push toward electrification and advanced computing, the ability of the mining sector to replicate Aya’s success at Zgounder will be the deciding factor in whether the silver market can find a sustainable equilibrium.
This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
