New CWAN Duration Activity Index (CDAI) reveals how institutional investors are tactically positioning their portfolios ahead of next year

Clearwater Analytics (NYSE: CWAN), the most comprehensive technology platform for investment management, today released its 2026 Economic Outlook, “The Economy That Still Wants to Hang On,” introducing a real-time measure of institutional duration positioning. The new CWAN Duration Activity Index (CDAI) reveals that institutions managing over $2 trillion in combined assets are currently in “neutral”— neither extending nor reducing their duration exposure amid stabilizing rates. The CDAI looks back over six years and analyzes investment data from insurers, tracking their fixed income holdings and adjustments to duration relative to their historical norms.

“Everyone has an outlook for 2026, but what makes ours different is pairing market commentary with a proprietary database no one else has,” said Sandeep Sahai, CEO at CWAN. “We’re looking out at economic trends and looking in at how institutions representing trillions in assets are actually positioning their portfolios.”

The 2026 Outlook challenges prevailing recession narratives while identifying pivots in monetary policy, strength in credit markets, and the ongoing technology investment needs that will help define the cycle through 2026.

Key Data Findings Reveal 2026 Positioning

Federal Reserve Policy Reality Check: Despite rate cuts, policy is unlikely to become accommodative due to underlying price pressures in the U.S. economy. CWAN data shows corporate treasurers have already reduced cash allocations and extended duration in anticipation of continued—but limited—Fed easing.

Long Rates Hit Structural Floor: The new CWAN Duration Activity Index shows institutional investors are treading water with duration exposure. An analysis of the 10-year Treasury yield helps to reveal why. CDAI methodology and implications are detailed in the full report.

Private Credit Migration Beats On: Analysis of insurers reveals an inexorable shift from public to private credit since 2018, a trend that predates the pandemic.

AI Investment Surge Shows Few Signs of Abating: Tracking insurers’ holdings in major AI stocks, CWAN data shows institutions are doubling down in 2025 with net purchases turning positive in the second half of 2025, despite widespread bubble concerns.

U.S. Economic Resilience Factors: Two key engines support continued growth through 2026 – consumer spending backed by real wage growth and elevated corporate profits.

“What makes this outlook unique is that we’re not just forecasting. We are analyzing how institutions are actually positioning their portfolios,” said Matthew Vegari, Head of Research at CWAN. “While recession fears continue, the economy continues to defy the odds. But the business and investment environment are by no means easy.”

The analysis draws from CWAN’s platform, which processes over $10 trillion in global assets, representing a real-time analysis of institutional investor behavior.

Learn More

• Register for a webinar on December 18 at 11:00 am ET, where CWAN’s Head of Research will present the complete 2026 Outlook findings, dive into the CDAI methodology, and answer questions about institutional positioning trends. Register today.
• Access the complete 2026 Economic Outlook report.

About CWAN

Clearwater Analytics (NYSE: CWAN) is transforming investment management with the industry’s most comprehensive cloud-native platform for institutional investors across global public and private markets. While legacy systems create risk, inefficiency, and data fragmentation, CWAN’s single-instance, multi-tenant architecture delivers real-time data and AI-driven insights throughout the investment lifecycle. The platform eliminates information silos by integrating portfolio management, trading, investment accounting, reconciliation, regulatory reporting, performance, compliance, and risk analytics in one unified system. Serving leading insurers, asset managers, hedge funds, banks, corporations, and governments, CWAN supports over $10 trillion in assets globally. Learn more at www.cwan.com.

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