April WTI crude oil (CLJ26) today is up +5.49 (+6.04%), and April RBOB gasoline (RBJ26) is up +0.0878 (+3.25%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices today are sharply higher after Israel on Saturday bombed 30 Iranian oil depots.  In addition, Saudi Arabia became the latest Middle East oil producer to curb production as local oil storage facilities near capacity.

Oil prices fell back from even sharper gains on overnight reports that G-7 finance ministers were discussing a possible joint release of oil reserves.  However, the G-7 countries have since decided against a near-term coordinated release of strategic oil reserves. The ministers said the G-7 is not there yet on an oil release, but they are closely monitoring the situation.

Meanwhile, there is no end in sight for the Middle East war as Iran's Assembly of Experts over the weekend appointed hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new supreme leader, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  Iran’s new leader has close ties to Iran’s powerful and entrenched Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  President Trump said he is "not happy" with Iran's choice of a new leader.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted most energy shipments from the Persian Gulf and is bullish for energy prices.  Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned ships not to sail through the passageway, saying that vessels “could be at risk from missiles or rogue drones.” The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a fifth of the world’s oil, has forced Gulf producers unable to export their oil to stockpile the crude in storage tanks.  Goldman Sachs estimates the real-time risk premium for crude oil at $18/bbl, corresponding to its estimate of the impact of a six-week full halt to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.  

In a bearish factor for crude, OPEC+ on March 1 said it will boost its crude output by 206,000 bpd in April, above estimates of 137,000 bpd, although that production hike now seems unlikely given that Middle East producers are being forced to cut production due to the Middle East war.  OPEC+ is trying to restore all of the 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has nearly another 1.0 million bpd left to restore.  OPEC’s January crude production fell by -230,000 bpd to a 5-month low of 28.83 million bpd.

Mounting crude supplies in floating storage are a bearish factor for oil prices.  According to Vortexa data, about 290 million bbl of Russian and Iranian crude are currently in floating storage on tankers, more than 50% higher than a year ago, due to blockades and sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude.  Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell by -21% w/w to 88.80 million bbl in the week ended March 6.

On February 10, the EIA raised its 2026 US crude production estimate to 13.60 million bpd from 13.59 million bpd last month, and raised its US 2026 energy consumption estimate to 96.00 (quadrillion btu) from 95.37 last month.  The IEA last month cut its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.7 million bpd from last month’s estimate of 3.815 million bpd.  

The most recent US-brokered meeting in Geneva to end the war between Russia and Ukraine ended early as Ukrainian President Zelenskiy accused Russia of dragging out the war.  Russia has said the “territorial issue” remains unresolved with Ukraine, and there’s “no hope of achieving a long-term settlement” to the war until Russia’s demand for territory in Ukraine is accepted.  The outlook for the Russia-Ukraine war to continue will keep restrictions on Russian crude in place and is bullish for oil prices.

Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries over the past seven months, limiting Russia’s crude oil export capabilities and reducing global oil supplies.  Also, since the end of November, Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian tankers, with at least six tankers attacked by drones and missiles in the Baltic Sea.  In addition, new US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have curbed Russian oil exports.

Last Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of February 27 were -2.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +4.4% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -1.9% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending February 27 was unchanged w/w at 13.696 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd from the week of November 7.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended March 6 rose by +4 to 411 rigs, just above the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in the week ended December 19.  Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.