The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
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My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
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The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 24-Jan-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
A 2024 RoadmapA combination of factors is converging to draw a stock market roadmap for 2024. Instead of the more familiar seasonal pattern of “sell in May and go away”, I would advocate a strategy of buying in May. The main factors that affect this roadmap are election year seasonality and the timing of the first rate cut.
Historically, the market has traced out a choppy pattern until May, followed by a rally into September, a pause and a rally into year-end. The market has so far outrun its seasonal pattern in 2024, with the warning that February has historically been weak during election years, according to Nautilus Investment Research.
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The full post can be found here.